Bitcoin’s rally has hit a wall as predictive markets—a bellwether for trader confidence—turn increasingly bearish on the journey toward $125,000. Recent data from Myriad Markets show a flip in sentiment: odds now favor Bitcoin reaching $105,000 before it climbs to the next major milestone. This shift comes as momentum stalls near the $100,000 threshold and volatility spikes across derivatives exchanges.
Bearish Tilt on Short-Term Price Targets
After weeks of consolidation around $98,000, Myriad’s order books reveal more traders placing contracts on the lower benchmark. The probability of a close above $105,000 at month-end has fallen below 40%, down from over 60% just two weeks ago. Market participants attribute this to waning momentum in key metrics: open interest in Bitcoin futures has dipped, funding rates on perpetual swaps are neutral to negative, and on-chain indicators signal reduced accumulation by long-term holders.
Key Technical and On-Chain Signals
Technically, Bitcoin is facing resistance near the upper boundary of the $99,000–$102,000 range. A sustained breakout would be needed to reignite bullish conviction, but short-term traders are increasingly skeptical. On-chain data underscores the caution: whale addresses holding 10+ BTC have slowed their net purchases, while exchange reserves tick upward—an indication that some big players may be gearing up to sell.
At the same time, network activity remains elevated, and average transaction fees have held steady. These signposts highlight that retail interest is not collapsing, even as speculators step back. The key question now is whether this friction resolves into a renewed push higher or a deeper retracement.
Potential Scenarios Ahead
Scenario one: bulls regroup near the $95,000 support zone, defend this level through heavy bid pressure, and mount a fresh assault on $105,000 in early July. This path hinges on renewed leverage inflows and a catalyst—possibly favorable regulation news or a prominent corporate treasury purchase.
Scenario two: the pullback extends below $95,000, triggering stop-loss cascades and a test of $90,000. In this case, the market would likely retest multi-month lows before finding equilibrium, delaying any move toward $125,000 until later in the year.
What Traders Should Watch
- Funding rates on BTC perpetual swaps: a swing into deeply negative territory could signal capitulation.
- Exchange reserves: sharp increases often presage sell-off phases.
- Open interest trends: a sustained decline may indicate liquidity drying up for directional bets.
- Macro catalysts: regulatory updates, institutional fund flows, and macroeconomic releases can all spur volatility.
Bottom Line
As the month draws to a close, traders must weigh patience against the risk of late-stage profit-taking. With sentiment on the ropes and technical levels in flux, Bitcoin’s path to $105,000 looks anything but assured.