Bitcoin has a talent for looking calm right up until it isn’t. In the opening trading days of 2026, price action has felt coiled, with enough headline noise to keep traders alert but lacking the conviction to spark a full-blown breakout or breakdown. As bond yields rise and risk assets come under pressure, attention is zeroing in on a specific on-chain supply metric that could confirm the bond market’s bearish stance and trigger a violent repricing come Monday.
Market Calm Masks Underlying Tension
Over the past week, Bitcoin hovered in a narrow $66,000–$68,000 range. Funding rates on perpetual swaps remain subdued, and open interest has neither surged nor collapsed—classic signs of a market waiting for a catalyst. Traditional investors are watching the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which climbed above 4.2% on expectations of a prolonged hawkish stance from central banks. If yields keep grinding higher, risk appetite is likely to wane, putting added pressure on equities and crypto alike.
Supply-Chain Metric Signals Danger
The metric in focus is the Coin-Flow Momentum Index (CFMI), an on-chain gauge that tracks the velocity of coins moving between long-term holders and active wallets. Historically, sharp spikes in CFMI have preceded major tops by indicating that long-term holders are offloading to speculators. As of Friday’s close, CFMI has surged to levels last seen during the June 2024 peak, suggesting heavy supply pressure may be looming.
If the bond market’s view of tighter future financial conditions proves right, those long-term coins could hit exchanges en masse, overwhelming buy support. In such a scenario, Bitcoin could see a swift 10–15% pullback by Monday’s open, catching traders on the wrong side of the trade.
Risk-Off Environment Intensifies
Beyond on-chain data, macro forces are stacking up against crypto. Equity markets are wobbling under the weight of higher real yields, and safe-haven bids in U.S. Treasuries remain strong. Crypto’s correlation with tech stocks has held firm, and any equity sell-off will likely reverberate through digital assets. With major altcoins already underperforming Bitcoin, a sudden drop in BTC could cascade across the board.
What Traders Should Watch
Heading into Monday, traders should monitor CFMI for a decisive uptick, along with exchange inflows and funding rates on top-tier derivatives platforms. A breakout above 4.4% on the U.S. 10-year yield would add fuel to the fire, reinforcing the risk-off narrative. Protective stop-loss orders and staggered position sizing may be prudent, given the potential for rapid downside pressure.