A Shift in Optimism
Industry bulls have pointed to institutional adoption, spot ETF inflows, and historic halving cycles as catalysts for a rapid ascent. Many believed the next level of mainstream acceptance would propel Bitcoin price action sharply higher within the next two years. Yet Brandt’s latest analysis suggests that renewed enthusiasm may be premature, as critical support levels face renewed tests.
Bearish Patterns Dominate the Charts
Brandt highlights the emergence of a diamond top formation and multiple bear pennants on the weekly timeframe—signals often associated with prolonged consolidation or retracements. Volume has failed to confirm bullish breakouts, and lower highs have formed over recent quarters. According to his interpretation, these patterns point toward a sideways grind or modest pullback rather than an immediate surge.
Macro Headwinds and Halving Timing
Beyond technicals, broader economic factors weigh heavily on risk assets. Central banks remain cautious, with interest rates at multi-year highs and inflationary pressures still present in global markets. Meanwhile, the next Bitcoin halving is expected in mid-2024, a traditional spark for bull markets. Brandt contends that post-halving upside may unfold more gradually than in previous cycles, stretching momentum into late 2028 and early 2029.
Preparing for the Long Game
With a potential multi-year consolidation phase ahead, investors may need to temper expectations and focus on managing entries and risk. While Bitcoin’s fundamental narrative remains intact—decentralized scarcity, growing institutional interest, evolving on-chain metrics—the timing of its next major leg up could take longer than many currently anticipate.